US Stock Market Closing Analysis, August 8, 2026: Nvidia Plummets 5% Amid Supermicro Computer's 20% Crash, AI Market Faces Performance Test

On Friday, August 7th, in Eastern Time, US stocks failed to sustain their prior rebound momentum, with the three major indices closing in decline. As of the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.6%, the S&P 500 fell by 0.77%, and the Nasdaq Composite experienced the largest decline, falling by 1.05%. Hot technology stocks became the primary victims of this correction; Nvidia fell by over 5%, and Tesla fell by over 4%. The AI computing power sector, which had been soaring, suffered one of its fiercest sell-offs since the earnings season. Looking back at the week, the US stock market experienced ups and downs. Early in the week, the three major indices rose consecutively, buoyed by easing US-Iran tensions and some better-than-expected economic data. On Thursday, the Dow ended its five consecutive gains, and the sharp decline in memory chip stocks sounded a warning bell to the market. The accelerated correction in technology stocks on Friday further confirmed the trend of capital shifting from high-profile thematic stocks to defensive assets. Market sentiment shifted from "buying the dips" to "hedging first and observing," with volatility noticeably increasing. AI Computing Leaders Crash: Profit Realization Pressure Surges Among the most watched stocks on Friday was Super Micro Computer (SMCI). One of the world's largest AI server manufacturers plummeted by over 20% in a single day, becoming a core factor dragging down the Nasdaq. According to the latest disclosed earnings guidance, the company's quarterly sales missed market expectations and significantly lowered its fiscal year sales forecast, severely damaging the optimistic outlook that had been built on the high growth of AI infrastructure. The market shock caused by Super Micro Computer's earnings "disaster" lies in the fact that it hit the biggest vulnerability in the current AI trend—the gap between expectations and reality. Over the past two years, the market had assigned extremely generous valuation premiums to AI chips, servers, and computing infrastructure, with stocks like Nvidia and Broadcom repeatedly setting new highs, and Super Micro Computer's annual growth nearly doubling at one point. However, as earnings season arrived, investors discovered that not all companies in the AI industry chain could smoothly convert orders into corresponding profits, and concerns over valuation bubbles intensified. Broadcom, which suffered a decline of over 5% on the same day, shared a similar fate. Intel fell by 3.6%. Nvidia, the absolute leader in AI chips, also fell by 5.08% on Friday. Despite its fundamentally strong position, the pressure of profit-taking at high levels was concentrated amid the overall contraction in sector valuations. It is worth noting that Nvidia's daily trading volume significantly increased, indicating intensifying divergence between bulls and bears, as some institutions began to re-evaluate the sustainability of the AI capital expenditure cycle. Tech Giants Under Pressure, Sector Rotation Signals Strengthen From a broader perspective, Friday's decline was not driven by a single event but was the result of multiple factors resonating. On one hand, as the earnings season entered a critical phase, the divergence in individual company performance intensified, and the trading pattern of "buying expectations and selling facts" played out repeatedly. Earlier this week, memory chip giants Western Digital and SK Hynix, despite reporting strong quarterly results, both plummeted because market expectations had already outpaced reality. Western Digital fell by over 13% in a single day, and SK Hynix fell by over 6%, dragging down the entire memory sector. Institutions like Goldman Sachs pointed out that the core contradiction facing the memory industry is not deteriorating fundamentals but rather expectations that have been over-leveraged. On the other hand, capital rotation among sectors has accelerated noticeably. On Friday, the Nasdaq China Gold Dragon Index closed down 1.45%, with most hot concept stocks declining; while defensive sectors, which had previously adjusted sufficiently, showed some resilience. From the perspective of capital flows, some funds are withdrawing from high-beta technology growth stocks and shifting to low-volatility sectors such as utilities and consumer staples. Some market analysts point out that this AI-driven trend may have entered a technical consolidation phase, and the index is likely to maintain a high-level volatile pattern in the short term, with sector divergence continuing to intensify. Oil price rebound combined with policy divergence means macro disturbances have not disappeared. At the macro level, changes in the commodity market are also worth noting. On Friday, the September contract for WTI crude oil rose by 3.1%, reaching $75.47 per barrel, as US crude oil inventories fell for the sixth consecutive week, providing support to oil prices. The stabilization and rebound in oil prices have, on one hand, eased concerns about energy demand prospects, and on the other hand, increased uncertainty regarding the path of inflation decline, which in turn affects the market's pricing of the Federal Reserve's policy space. In terms of monetary policy, internal divisions at the Federal Reserve are increasing. Dudley, the former President of the New York Fed, recently spoke, stating that he shifted from a hawkish to a dovish stance two weeks ago, abandoning the insistence on further interest rate hikes and instead advocating for an immediate rate cut to prevent an economic recession. Dudley pointed out that the recent softening of the labor market, combined with further slowing inflation, means the longer the Federal Reserve waits, the greater the potential damage to the economy. This statement contrasts sharply with the positions of some Fed officials who remain hawkish, reflecting the difficult trade-off policymakers face between "combating inflation" and "stabilizing growth." Market pricing of the probability of a rate cut at the September meeting has also shown significant fluctuations. In overseas markets, Shinichi Uchida, a Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, clearly stated that the central bank will not raise interest rates during financial market instability, and the depreciation of the Japanese yen being corrected will also affect policy operations. The differences in the policy directions of major global central banks increase the volatility of cross-border capital flows, posing potential disturbances to US stock valuations and the USD trend. Outlook: The second half of the earnings season and inflation data are key variables. Looking ahead to next week, the market will face two key tests. The first is the performance validation during the second half of the earnings season. Following Micron Technology, more AI industry chain companies will successively disclose their financial results, and the market's scrutiny of whether "earnings can support valuations" will become stricter. In particular, Micron Technology's official financial results and management guidance will be released after the market close on August 11, and indicators such as gross margin and order visibility will be important benchmarks for measuring the true vitality of AI capital expenditure. The second is the upcoming US inflation data. As an important reference before the Federal Reserve's September meeting, the trend of CPI will directly affect the market's pricing of the timing of a rate cut. If inflation declines as expected, coupled with weakening employment data, expectations for a rate cut are likely to heat up further, providing breathing room for high-valued growth stocks; conversely, if inflation shows stickiness, it may trigger another round of valuation contraction, and the high volatility of the technology sector may continue. Overall, after a significant rise in the first half of the year, US stock valuations are at a historically high percentile, and the market's sensitivity to negative factors has significantly increased. For investors, rather than betting on a trend in a single direction, it is better to focus on stocks with higher earnings certainty and more stable cash flows during the earnings season, while also being vigilant about the risk of valuation correction in high-profile thematic stocks. In terms of sector allocation, one can moderately balance growth and defense, patiently waiting for further clarity on inflation data and the Federal Reserve's policy path before deciding on the pace of increasing holdings.